Auto Focus
By Melissa Anderson
Vice President, IRN Inc.
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One of the situations that we have been monitoring is the drama surrounding Toyota and its efforts to address complaints about unintended acceleration in its vehicles. There are many facets to this topic, and the questions continue to outnumber the answers. Just looking at the broad picture, one could ask:
Are the complaints valid? If so, is it a design problem or a manufacturing problem? Has the company properly identified the root cause and developed appropriate countermeasures?
If they are valid complaints, how did this happen? Did Toyota become complacent or volume-focused, and allow the organization to drift from the discipline that created its reputation for quality and reliability?
Should more have been done? Can the safety agency NHTSA execute its responsibilities? Did Toyota respond quickly and openly enough?
Anyone who has been reading the news knows that there are many more detailed questions about Toyota, but the concerns being raised could have implications well beyond Toyota’s domain.
What do we know about electronics and when did we know it?
One source of dissatisfaction with Toyota’s answers is the fact that the company has not been able to reproduce any electronic or software problems that could lead to unintended acceleration. Toyota has identified and corrected several associated problems (unsecured aftermarket floor mats, sticky pedals caused by a particular composite material, and a software coding error on the Prius brakes), but there is skepticism from some quarters (e.g. Congress, media outlets, some consumers) as to whether these are sufficient to explain the full range of incidents. Are the electronics truly problem-free or is Toyota simply incapable of finding the flaw that is there? Alas, it is always hard to prove a negative.
In support of the premise that it is not a failing on Toyota’s part, it should be noted that nobody has been able to identify faulty software or electronics in Toyota’s electronically controlled engine throttles. One third-party investigator, Dr. David Gilbert of Southern Illinois University-Carbondale, said that he was able to introduce a fault within the electronic system that should have been detected but that did not produce an error code, leading him to the conclusion that it is possible that electronics problems are occurring but are not being recognized as such. The jury is out, so to speak, on whether his procedure could occur in real-world conditions and whether his results are unique to Toyota products.
Although Toyota is currently the public face of this problem, it matters to every automaker. Unintended acceleration has been the subject of complaints to NHTSA for years, and analysis by Edmunds.com of records from 2005-2010 indicated that virtually every brand sold in the U.S. had at least a small number of incidents.
Toyota’s troubles also matter to everyone because the concerns will not stop at electronic throttle control. The public is becoming aware that the use of electronics in vehicles these days is huge. According to an article in the IEEE Spectrum electronics journal (“This Car Runs on Code,” February 2009), there are 70-100 microprocessor-based electronic control units networked throughout a high-end car, and 30-50 ECUs at the low end, running engine control, safety, and comfort and convenience features. The focus on the mysteries of electronics is coming to the fore with stories such as the one in USA Today on Feb. 23 titled “Could electronics be what’s causing runaway cars?,” pondering whether electromagnetic interference is coming into play. Whether or not the fears are justified, they must be addressed thoroughly and put to rest. With three decades of evolving vehicle electronics knowledge, this should be doable.
A common problem needs a collaborative solution
Ronald Reagan is famously quoted as saying “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.’” A similar sentiment might be shared by automakers and suppliers now that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has announced plans to increase its understanding of vehicle electronic systems and the risks of electromagnetic interference. It seems clear to us, however, that it’s time for a collective focus on de-mystifying electronics. This should come not only from the Department of Transportation, but also from multiple OEMs and suppliers weighing in for the benefit of the industry (not to help Toyota). Some suggestions of what it would be helpful to see in order to have a more balanced picture:
• Stories in the media on the benefits of increased use of vehicle electronics for performance and safety;
• Clarification of the fact that re-booting your personal computer is not an apt parallel to automotive electronics;
• User-friendly descriptions of what the products are doing, for the education of the end user.
This side of the story, combined with a thorough joint NHTSA-industry examination, is urgently needed. It isn’t just about Toyota anymore. It’s about making sure that the automakers are free to provide what we all want — safe, affordable vehicles that fully leverage the progress of science and technology.
Melissa Anderson
Vice-President
IRN Inc.
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Melissa Anderson joined the staff of IRN in 1986. Her primary role in the organization is as the architect of custom research projects that help clients assess the market potential for new products, prioritize customer targets, understand industry trends, and other facets of strategic marketing. The majority of these projects deal with automotive components, such as airbags, climate control components, door impact beams, exhaust system materials, numerous elements of the interior, lighting, fuel delivery systems, bumpers and fascia, anti-lock brake systems, and others.
Julie Cridler
Senior Market Analyst
IRN Inc.
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Julie Cridler began working at IRN in 1994, first as an intern and then as a full-time Market Analyst following her completion, with distinction, of the Master of Business Administration (M.B.A.) program at Grand Valley State University. From August 1998 through August 1999 she worked at Haworth in Holland, Michigan as a Product Specialist involved in a new product development and launch team. In August 1999, Julie returned to IRN as a Senior Market Analyst.
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