Crystal Ball Economic Development Jim Hettinger: 2011 - Opportunities abound, still far from a rosy outlook
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By Jim Hettinger
Toward the end of the year, MiBiz requests its contributors to gaze into their crystal balls and tell the readership what we see coming up in the new year. Of course, each year, I have to be dragged into this as I am not at all confident in my capabilities to see the future, the present notwithstanding. But, some thought was given to technology, politics and the economy to come up with trends for 2011. So here goes.
2011 will see an acceleration in the use of “cloud computing.” Though security concerns have driven the initial uses of cloud computing, there are yet to be discovered commercial applications that will foster new venture formations exploiting trends analysis and mass customization opportunities in goods and services.
Computer security will leap from an information technology niche to the business of the big name providers like Google, eBay and Microsoft. As systems become more interdependent, the possibilities for malicious strikes at the systems also grow. Many big name providers have and will continue to recognize that constantly improving security has to be part of the overall package.
2011 will see slow growth, if any, in hiring, fixing unemployment at 10 percent or more. Until Washington and Lansing get it straight that stable, predictable tax rates will lead to an active positive investment climate and an uncertain cost climate does just the opposite, investment capital and new job creation will remain on the sidelines.
No surprise here, but healthcare reform will ride a roller coaster in public opinion as people increasingly learn the good, the bad and the ugly of the legislation passed this past autumn. Many of the new benefits of the healthcare reform law will be cancelled out by hidden taxes and the continued expansion of government. 2011 will force the nation to begin to reconcile these realities.
Personal Internet sourcing overseas will continue to increase as shoppers seek new bargains in designer clothes and custom made clothing. Improved communication, security and logistics will vitalize this method of consumer spending.
The European debt crisis will continue to exacerbate unrest in Europe as the current system is not sustainable and will continue to tear up the European version of the social contract. 2011 will see the first deaths resulting from protests over the crisis.
Electronic textbooks will rapidly gain in popularity as traditional books are skyrocketing in production costs, driving the costs of traditional textbooks beyond the affordability of middle America. Environmental issues may help fuel the trend.
2011 will see a fix for Michigan’s broken tax system. Governor Snyder has a majority in the state legislature, he has the very best knowledge about how taxes impact investment, and he has pledged to fix this mess. Let’s get on with it. Please re-read number three.
There is always a game changer for 2011. The game changer could be an Israeli or U.S. strike at Iranian nuclear facilities. Such an event will, at least, lead to skyrocketing energy prices for the West and an increased risk of terrorist retribution in the U.S. Nonetheless, there may be no choice.
Whatever 2011 holds, I thank the readers of MiBiz for their kind and not so kind remarks on my columns and I sincerely mean that. I wish all of you a healthy and a prosperous 2011.