 Order Reprints
Chamber leaders are by nature positive people since their jobs is to help promote and market their membership. But they say they’re also not afraid to tackle issues that hurt the competitiveness of their members. While that’s certainly nothing new, chamber executives across West Michigan are somewhat mixed on the prospects for 2011. As they prepare for that sentiment, MiBiz asked the leaders to share their outlook and some insight into what opportunities and challenges members see in the coming year.
|
|
Crystal Ball 
Each year the complexity of our global economy makes it more and more difficult to predict the future. At best, there are no easy answers to the challenges we face, and yet West Michigan is well positioned to drive its success.
Great carnival fortunetellers claim to have magic in their crystal balls, but they really just have a knack for noticing obvious clues. A sickly looking, coughing patron may find ill health forecast ahead, and a well-dressed, confident-looking businessperson may hear a prediction of pending good business fortune. A solo young adult without a ring sitting eagerly across from the observant fortuneteller may hear she is likely to find true love. The act of fortunetelling turns out to be not so mysterious after all, but simply a matter of reading subtle signs.
During the second half of 2010 Michigan’s economy finally started to improve, albeit slowly, by virtually all measures. Despite efforts to diversify the Michigan economy away from automotive, the recovery in Michigan has been driven to a large extent by the auto industry. As a result, the manufacturing sector added jobs for the first time in over a decade in May 2010 compared to a year earlier. After weathering an entire decade of economic decreases in Michigan, many question if this improvement will extend into 2011 and beyond.
My “crystal ball” looks backward as well as forward. Moreover, my “channels” are totally focused on what’s happening in the entrepreneurial/incubation/small-business/innovation portion of economic development practice.
A former econ professor once joked that economists and weathermen are two professions where one can be constantly and consistently wrong, yet still have a job the next day. Knowing that, I will make some bold predictions for the economy based on a review of previous trends.
I introduced myself at a recent meeting of the West Michigan Sustainable Business Forum as Grand Rapids Community College’s “resident futurist.” As with any label, there are misconceptions.
There are two pieces to my crystal ball gazing for 2011. The first has to do with the economy. It’s almost certain to improve, although by not very much. Plainly, the automobile industry will be experiencing much better times than it has for some years. The Detroit Three have succeeded in pounding down their breakeven point — by several thousands of dollars per vehicle — that they can make money even when market conditions are crummy. Most experts think next year should be a 12-13 million car year, which means the auto companies will be making lots of money.
Toward the end of the year, MiBiz requests its contributors to gaze into their crystal balls and tell the readership what we see coming up in the new year. Of course, each year, I have to be dragged into this as I am not at all confident in my capabilities to see the future, the present notwithstanding. But, some thought was given to technology, politics and the economy to come up with trends for 2011. So here goes.
The 2011 Michigan economy will come down to one word: Execution.