David J. Smith: Talent and the regional economy
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David J. Smith
President and CEO,
The Employers’ Association
Change is one of our few constants in life, yet we all react differently to the opportunities generated by a simple turn of a page. Though we cannot predict our reactions, we should be able to reasonably anticipate what to expect if we extrapolate existing trends and apply them to the New Year’s potential.
Our unemployment rate should drop slightly, but ongoing talent deficiencies will make filling jobs difficult. New talent imported to fill created jobs will leave the number of unemployed about the same even though unemployment rates decline.
Recognizing the value of the individual seems counter-intuitive to the government trying to create individual equality. To avoid mediocrity, we will have to do more to recognize and reward the expression of individual abilities, reinforcing that all will not receive back equally simply because of their needs.
While we hope that 2012 will signal an end to the nagging financial issues keeping us from focusing on where we are going by distracting us with where we have been, the reality may be that West Michigan will:
- Continue to show slow and deliberate growth that could easily be disrupted — or totally derailed — by any number of domestic political turmoil or international financial concerns during the first quarter;
- Hold steady and possibly decline slightly during the second and third quarters as we await election results and the court’s considerations of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act;
- Resume a path of measured growth during the fourth quarter once we realize that the sky has not fallen and our world will go forward regardless of election results;
- Have to solve the puzzle of escalating health care costs. Business cannot sustain 20 to 25 percent increases in premiums if we are to remain competitive. Consumers must help to curb these ongoing costs.